Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will record its peak temperature for 16 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that high. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests traders view the event as impossible, likely because the market structure requires the temperature to fall within a predefined, narrow bracket that has not yet been selected or is deemed statistically unattainable for this date.

Historical data from Schiphol shows July highs typically range between 20°C and 28°C, with extreme outliers reaching 34°C during the 2019 heatwave. A 0% probability is anomalous for a weather event unless the specific range offered is outside the plausible envelope, such as a sub-zero or hyper-extreme bracket. Comparable prediction markets on similar dates usually show non-zero implied probabilities for any range within the 15°C–35°C band, indicating a potential mispricing or a structural error in the contract definition rather than a genuine belief that no temperature will occur.

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily history page for EHAM as the settlement clock approaches, verifying the exact resolution range against real-time forecasts from the Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI). No specific announcements are pending, but the primary dependency is the accurate publication of the daily maximum by Wunderground before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline. Any divergence between KNMI’s forecast and the Wunderground record could trigger a resolution dispute, though the market rules explicitly prioritise the Wunderground data point.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.