Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Global temperatures in 2026 are projected to remain near 2025 levels, with the most probable outcome ranking the year as the fourth hottest since 1850, trailing the record-breaking warmth of 2023 and 2024[2]. This historical framing suggests the current 34% YES probability for 2026 ranking among the top three hottest years is elevated relative to the 51% implied chance of a fourth-place finish[2]. While the World Meteorological Organisation notes an 86% likelihood that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest ever, the specific window for 2026 carries a lower probability of record-breaking intensity due to ongoing La Niña cooling patterns[1][2].

Traders should monitor the transition from La Niña to neutral or El Niño conditions, as a shift could unexpectedly boost late-year temperatures and alter the final ranking[2]. The EU Climate Service has already flagged January 2026 as the fifth-warmest January on record, while May 2026 registered as the second-highest monthly temperature in the 177-year dataset, indicating significant early volatility[3][8]. Key dependencies include the release of full-year Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, which typically becomes available in early 2027, though the market resolves immediately upon the first official publication regardless of subsequent revisions[2]. Any announcement confirming a sustained La Niña through autumn would reinforce the fourth-place consensus, whereas a rapid warming trend could push the year into the top three, challenging the current odds divergence.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.