2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills is already down to the weekend field, with the championship using the standard U.S. Open rule of the top 60 players and ties after 36 holes. In the actual tournament, the cut line settled at **4 over**, and 72 players advanced, so any contract on a specific entrant making the cut is now binary on that player’s score and standing rather than on the event’s broader volatility.[2][5][7]

That matters for reading the current **0% YES** crowd price: it implies the market is treating the listed player as effectively eliminated, or at least as having no realistic path under the official rules. For context, the comparable public-read pieces before play expected a cut around four-over par, with DataGolf assigning 62% to that number and then 93% once Friday evening scores were in, which shows how quickly cut probabilities can compress as the round closes.[1][2] If sportsbook availability is still open, it will typically sit close to a definitive no once a player is outside the projected or final cut number, so the biggest divergence is usually between stale market pricing and the live tournament position rather than among informed forecasters.[1][2]

The main catalysts are the official score updates, the published cut list, and any late scoring corrections from the PGA Tour or USGA. The championship runs from 18–21 June at Shinnecock Hills, and the cut is set after 36 holes, so the only practical dependency is whether the player’s final two-round total ends inside the low 60 and ties threshold.[5][7][8] Once the cut is formally posted, there is little room for interpretation, which is why analyst consensus and tournament status normally converge quickly at the weekend boundary.[2][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track 2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.