UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Andre Fili’s featherweight main-card bout with Vinicius Oliveira is being priced very differently across the market stack, with sportsbooks making Oliveira a clear favourite while the prediction market is already at **100% YES** for Fili. DraftKings has Oliveira at **-305** and Fili at **+245**, which implies a much lower win chance for Fili than the crowd signal suggests[1]. That gap matters because pre-fight markets often overstate the favourite when a bout is expected to be competitive, and this one is not a mismatch on recent form: analysts note both men tend to reach the later rounds, with three of Fili’s last four and four of Oliveira’s last five going at least three rounds[1].

Comparables also point to how fragile a 100% reading can be before official results land. Tapology’s bout page already records Oliveira as the winner by **R2 TKO**, while combat-sports coverage shows the same fight at UFC Vegas 119 with Oliveira landing sustained offence[3][5]. If that result stands with the UFC’s official card, the market resolves away from Fili; if there is any amendment to the result, or if the bout were ruled a no contest, postponed, or otherwise not scored as described, the contract would shift to the market’s fallback settlement. The key trader watchpoints are the UFC’s official result posting, any commission-led changes, and whether the event proceeds as scheduled at the APEX, since the settlement window closes on **2026-06-21T03:59:59.999Z**[2][8][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Card) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.