Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in the White House with no immediate indication of resignation or removal before the end of July 2026. The crowd-implied probability of him ceasing to be President by 31 July sits at just 1% on the prediction market, a figure that diverges sharply from broader impeachment-removal forecasts. While Kalshi recently priced Trump’s impeachment and removal from office at nearly 28.7% for his second term, that aggregate includes scenarios extending well beyond the current market’s narrow settlement window and does not equate to a near-term exit [1].

Historically, presidential removal has been exceptionally rare: only two presidents have faced impeachment (Andrew Johnson and Bill Trump), and neither was convicted by the Senate. Richard Nixon resigned before impeachment, but that was a voluntary exit amid legal pressure, not a forced removal. The 25th Amendment remains a theoretical path, yet its invocation requires VP and Cabinet consensus, which currently appears absent given Republican control of the Senate and ongoing party loyalty [2][3].

Traders should monitor upcoming House impeachment inquiry developments, any sudden Cabinet statements, and scheduled congressional votes. A recent Newsweek report noted a record spike in removal probability estimates, but those reflect longer-term expectations rather than July-specific catalysts [1]. With Republicans holding both House and Senate majorities, conviction remains unlikely, and no credible announcement of resignation has emerged as of early July.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.