Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
87% | 13% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
87% | 13% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 87% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 72% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 38.5 | 67% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 66% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 40.5 | 56% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 53% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Game Spread +/-3.5 | 48% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 35% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 17% |
Market context
Market consensus: 87% chance of us open atp: jurij rodionov vs giovanni mpetshi perricard. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Jurij Rodionov and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This marke…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
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