National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce

Platform comparison

Market context

Nicolás Mejía’s meeting with Martín Landaluce at the National Bank Open is a first-time ATP-level matchup, and the available market signals lean clearly towards the Spaniard. Tennis Tonic’s opening odds make Landaluce a strong favourite at 1.26, while Nicolás Mejía is priced at 3.84, and Robinhood’s related match-score contract also favours Landaluce heavily, with 2-0 at 46¢ and 2-1 at 24¢ versus Mejía’s 2-1 at 16¢ and 2-0 at 14¢.[16][15] Against that backdrop, a 14% crowd-implied YES on Mejía points to a sharply negative consensus on his chances, closer to a live longshot than a coin-flip.

The form profile is mixed, but Landaluce is still the higher-rated player in the live tournament listings, with Tennistemple showing him around ATP 63 live against Mejía near ATP 129 live.[12] Head-to-head is blank across multiple trackers, so traders are reading recent results rather than direct history: Tennisstats and 365Scores both note no prior meetings, while Tennisstats also shows Mejía with a slightly better year-to-date and twelve-month win rate than Landaluce, even though Landaluce is the more highly ranked player.[2][10][3] That divergence helps explain why the market is not pricing Mejía at a complete no-hoper level.

For traders, the main catalysts are procedural rather than tactical. Tennis.com lists the match as a first-round ATP Montréal contest, and multiple live-score pages place it on 2 August with a scheduled start around 16:10–16:30 UTC, so the key risk is whether the match is actually played on time or pushed beyond the settlement window.[4][10][14] Because this contract pays 50-50 if the match is not played at all, ends level, or is delayed more than seven days without a winner, schedule updates from the tournament draw, court assignment, and weather or backlog on Rogers Court matter more here than any single pre-match narrative.[11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.