Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 78% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel | 71% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 2 Winner | 64% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 3 Winner | 64% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 1 Winner | 62% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 62% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Match O/U 36.5 | 54% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Match O/U 38.5 | 49% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 30% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 26% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 78% YES probability for US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel. This market refers to the tennis match between Jiri Lehecka and Toby Samuel in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jiri Lehecka' if…
Methodology
This page reviews US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
Trade US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Toby Samuel on Best Prediction Markets UK
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