Little Rock: Andre Ilagan vs Yasutaka Uchiyama

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Andre Ilagan and Yasutaka Uchiyama are scheduled to compete in a professional tennis match at Little Rock on 25 May 2026, with the settlement window closing on 1 June 2026 at 15:00 UTC. The current crowd-implied probability stands at 100% YES, indicating near-universal expectation that the match will be played and produce a decisive winner within the specified timeframe.

The 100% reading reflects the structural design of prediction markets covering lower-tier professional tennis fixtures. Matches at this level—typically ATP Challenger or ITF events—rarely face cancellation once scheduled, and scheduling delays beyond seven days are uncommon except in cases of severe weather or player injury. Historical precedent suggests that even when matches are postponed, they are rescheduled within the settlement window rather than abandoned entirely. The probability distribution therefore hinges almost entirely on the assumption that both players remain fit and available through late May.

Traders monitoring this contract should track injury announcements from either player's camp, particularly in the two weeks preceding the scheduled date. Weather forecasts for Little Rock in late May warrant attention, though severe disruption is statistically unlikely. Confirmation of the tournament draw and court assignments typically arrives 7–10 days before competition begins; any withdrawal or replacement at that stage would shift the market materially. Current sportsbook lines on the match outcome itself (Ilagan versus Uchiyama) should be cross-referenced against prediction-market odds to identify any divergence in how the two platforms assess individual player performance, independent of match-completion risk.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.