Swedish Open, Qualification: Federico Coria vs Taro Daniel

Platform comparison

Market context

Federico Coria and Taro Daniel are set to contest the Swedish Open qualifying match in Båstad, Sweden, with the contest scheduled to begin at 11:10 UTC on Court 3. The prediction market currently implies a 0% probability for Coria advancing, a stark divergence from traditional sportsbooks where Ladbrokes lists Coria at 8/5 and Taro Daniel as the favourite, suggesting a significant mispricing or liquidity anomaly in the prediction contract compared to established odds[9].

Historical head-to-head data shows Taro Daniel has won more matches against Coria in their rivalry, providing a factual basis for Daniel’s preference in conventional markets[2]. However, a 0% implied probability for Coria is extreme; in comparable ATP qualifying cases, even clear underdogs retain a non-zero chance of advancing due to surface suitability or day-specific form, making this zero-probability line an outlier against typical market behaviour where minimum probabilities rarely drop below 1–2% unless a player is absent.

Traders should monitor the official start time confirmation and any pre-match injury announcements, as the match is scheduled for today with a start time of 11:10 UTC[1]. The settlement window extends until July 19, 2026, meaning any delay beyond seven days without a winner triggers a 50-50 resolution, a dependency that adds volatility if weather or court conditions in Båstad disrupt the schedule[7]. No recent news indicates a cancellation, but the absence of Coria from the line-up would be the primary catalyst for the current pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.