Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Hugo Dellien

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Market context

Roberto Carballes Baena and Hugo Dellien were due to meet in Roland Garros qualifying, a clay-court match between two established tour-level grinders. The market is already priced at 100% for Carballes Baena, leaving no visible disagreement between the contract and the broad pre-match view. That lines up with the match-specific data available in previews and head-to-head records: Carballes Baena leads the rivalry 2-1 overall and 2-1 on clay, with recent coverage noting he had dropped one set in qualifying while Dellien had not yet lost a set. In other words, the consensus is not based on a mismatch in form alone, but on a fairly narrow edge for the Spaniard on the surface that matters most here.

For traders, the main catalyst is whether the match is completed inside the settlement window and whether the reported start time holds. FanDuel listed the contest for 22 May at 5:00am ET, while live scoreboards from myKhel, SofaScore and Flashscore all tracked the fixture as a qualifying final at Roland Garros, suggesting normal scheduling rather than any obvious interruption. The other factor is whether either player withdraws or the match is postponed far enough to trigger the market’s 50-50 fallback. Roland Garros’ own highlight page also confirms this was the QR3 meeting, so there is little scope for interpretation if the match is played to a finish; the only real event risk is delay, cancellation or an administrative outcome before a winner is recorded.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Hugo Dellien across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.