Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 23.5 | 73% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 48% |
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 Winner | 44% |
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik | 21% |
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, national bank open: terence atmane vs jakub mensik stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Terence Atmane and Jakub Mensik in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 7, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will r…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
Trade National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik on Best Prediction Markets UK
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