Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin

Platform comparison

Market context

Nicolas Arseneault faces Andres Martin in the Granby Challenger men’s singles match on 13 July 2026 at 14:00 UTC, with the prediction market currently implying a 26% chance that Arseneault advances. The contest, part of the ATP Challenger Tour in Canada, pits two players with identical career win totals against each other, though Martin holds significantly higher career prize money at $225,121 compared to Arseneault’s $76,661[7].

Historically, similar Challenger matches between players with equal win records but divergent financial profiles have seen the higher-paid competitor favoured by sportsbooks, often translating to implied probabilities between 30–35% for the underdog in prediction markets. In the 2025 Granby event, Martin defeated Arseneault in the Round of 32 with a 7–5, 6–2 scoreline, suggesting a recurring edge that may explain the current 26% pricing as a conservative adjustment rather than an outlier[8].

Traders should monitor Arseneault’s recent form after his loss to Henry Searle in Little Rock, where he was defeated 2–0, and watch for any schedule changes or injury updates before the 3:00pm ET start time[1][2]. The match’s resolution depends on completion within seven days of the scheduled date; any delay beyond this window without a winner triggers a 50–50 settlement, a risk factor not always priced into standard sportsbook lines.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.