Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev

Platform comparison

Market context

Daniil Medvedev, the world No. 8 and two-time Wimbledon semifinalist, faces Spain’s Daniel Mérida Aguilar, ranked 84th, in the second round of Wimbledon on 1 July 2026 at 1:00 pm on Court 2[2][9]. The match is set to begin at 16:05 Moscow time, with live coverage available across major sports platforms[1].

Historically, such stark ranking disparities at Wimbledon have rarely produced upset winners; in the past decade, a player ranked over 70 spots below their opponent has won only 4% of second-round matches at this tournament[2]. This aligns closely with the 6% probability assigned to Mérida Aguilar on Limitless Exchange, while prediction markets currently imply a 100% YES for Medvedev advancing, suggesting a notable divergence between sportsbook odds and crowd sentiment[5].

Traders should monitor real-time court conditions and any late injury announcements, as grass surface volatility can shift momentum quickly. Medvedev’s recent straight-set victory over a higher-ranked opponent reinforces his dominance, but Mérida Aguilar’s resilience in 68 of 100 matches warrants attention[3]. No official withdrawal has been reported as of 3 PM UTC, and the settlement window remains open until 8 July 2026[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.