Claude Mythos released on…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic's release timeline for a model explicitly branded as "Claude Mythos" remains undeclared, with the 0% crowd probability reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus dismissal. The company has released three major model families—Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus—across 2023–2024, each arriving without advance naming conventions disclosed publicly. Anthropic's product roadmap typically emerges through developer announcements or API documentation rather than long-lead marketing campaigns, making forward-looking claims about specific model nomenclature inherently speculative.

Historical precedent from Anthropic's naming patterns offers limited guidance. The shift from Claude 1, 2, and 3 to the Haiku–Sonnet–Opus taxonomy occurred mid-2024 without prior indication that a fourth family tier would emerge. Comparable cases—OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo and o1 releases, or Meta's Llama variants—show major labs occasionally introduce new capability tiers or architectural branches, though naming conventions remain fluid until official release. The absence of "Mythos" in any leaked roadmap, patent filing, or analyst briefing as of late 2024 suggests either genuine non-existence or deliberate secrecy.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's quarterly developer conferences, API changelog updates, and job postings for hints of new model families. Recent statements from CEO Dario Amodei (November 2024) emphasised scaling and safety research without mentioning new naming schemes. The settlement window extends to June 2026, providing an 18-month observation period; any official announcement would immediately shift market odds. Cross-platform comparison shows prediction markets and sportsbooks offering no competing lines, indicating minimal institutional interest in this specific outcome.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.