Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, a 54-kilometre waterway between Iran and Oman, remains one of the world's most strategically sensitive maritime chokepoints. Approximately one-third of global seaborne oil passes through it annually. Warship transits by non-regional powers are relatively uncommon, though the United States Navy has conducted freedom-of-navigation operations there periodically, and allied navies occasionally coordinate passage. The current 4% implied probability reflects the rarity of such transits outside established patterns and the absence of imminent geopolitical triggers that would necessitate new naval deployments through the strait by June 2026.

Historical precedent suggests that warship transits spike during periods of heightened regional tension or formal naval exercises. The 2019–2020 period saw increased US Navy activity following the Soleimani assassination and subsequent Iranian ballistic missile strikes. More recently, the Houthi insurgency's attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden (2023–2024) prompted multinational naval coordination, though most operations remained in adjacent waters rather than the strait itself. The low current probability reflects the market's assessment that absent a major escalation in regional conflict or a deliberate show-of-force operation, additional warship transits remain unlikely within the settlement window.

Traders should monitor announcements regarding Iranian nuclear negotiations, Houthi activity levels, and any formal declarations of multinational naval task forces. Recent reporting from Reuters and regional defence ministries indicates that current US Navy operations focus on the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden rather than direct Hormuz transits. Scheduled Iranian military exercises or sudden shifts in US–Iran diplomatic posture could alter the calculus materially, though no such announcements have materialised as of late 2024.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.