Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by 2026?

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Market context

President Trump announced a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on 12 April 2026, so this contract is really about whether Washington publicly reverses that position before 30 June. The current 17% implied probability points to a low but not negligible chance of an explicit lifting announcement within the window. That sits in the usual range for fast-moving geopolitical contracts, where prediction markets tend to price in either a diplomatic climbdown or a formal military de-escalation, while sportsbook-style lines often remain wider and less reactive unless there is a clear headline. In comparable Middle East escalation markets, the biggest moves have come not from battlefield developments but from official statements, joint communiqués, or a shift in US naval posture.

For traders, the main catalysts are any White House, Pentagon, or State Department language that moves from operational blockade to suspension, stand-down, or reopening. Recent reporting has suggested there is still no settled diplomatic path: Politico reported in April that Trump had floated several, at times contradictory, ways to reopen Hormuz, while a separate NBC News live update on the failed US-Iran peace talks described the blockade as having been announced after negotiations broke down. That means the key dependency is whether talks with Iran produce a public de-escalation framework, and whether any such deal is formalised before the settlement deadline. Absent a direct statement from Trump or a recognised US authority ending the blockade, the market is likely to stay anchored at a low single-digit-to-teens probability rather than converging quickly towards certainty.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.