Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
57% | 43% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
57% | 43% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sonia Citron: Points O/U 17.5 | 57% |
| Washington Mystics vs. Toronto Tempo | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| O/U 170.5 | 52% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| María Conde: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 171.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Marina Mabrey: Points O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Shakira Austin: Points O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Sonia Citron: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 172.5 | 47% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Sonia Citron: Assists O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Nyara Sabally: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Shakira Austin: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 40% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Shakira Austin: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Nyara Sabally: Points O/U 10.5 | 37% |
| Sonia Citron: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| Marina Mabrey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 12.5 | 31% |
| Marina Mabrey: Points O/U 23.5 | 29% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Marina Mabrey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
Market context
Market consensus: 57% chance of washington mystics vs. toronto tempo. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for July 14 at 7:00PM ET: If the Washington Mystics win, the market will resolve to "Washington Mystics". If the Toronto Tempo win, the market …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $180K.
Methodology
We track Washington Mystics vs. Toronto Tempo across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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