Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-2.5) vs Sentinels (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-4.5) vs Sentinels (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-3.5) vs Sentinels (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 83% |
| Map 2 Winner | 56% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-5.5) vs Sentinels (+5.5) | 55% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 55% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 53% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map Handicap: KRÜ (-1.5) vs Sentinels (+1.5) | 47% |
| Match Winner | 35% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+2.5) | 25% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-3.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-4.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
The Valorant: Sentinels vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In prediction market currently prices this outcome at 90% YES. This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket round 2 match between Sentinels and KRÜ Esports in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In, initially scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. This marke…
Methodology
We track Valorant: Sentinels vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
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