Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5) | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 69% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 67% |
| Match Winner | 65% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 64% |
| Map 2 Winner | 53% |
| Map 4 Winner | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) | 48% |
| Map 3 Winner | 45% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 40% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 31% |
| Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) | 29% |
| Map Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to valorant: 100 thieves vs nrg (bo5) - esports world cup playoffs. This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between 100 Thieves and NRG in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 12 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thie…
Methodology
We track Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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