UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Kevin Borjas faces Andre Lima in a flyweight main-card bout at UFC Fight Night, and the cross-platform pricing points to Lima as the clear favourite. Sportsbooks are broadly aligned: opening moneyline references show Lima around **-650** and Borjas **+475**, with current market screens still clustered near that range, including Sportsbet’s roughly **1.14** on Lima and **5.80** on Borjas, while Pickswise has shown Lima as short as **-730** at the firmest end.[1][2][3]

That level of pricing is consistent with how markets have treated undefeated or near-undefeated UFC prospects against established but less favoured opponents: the favourite often sits in the high-implied-probability band, but small moves in the American line can still mask a meaningful shift in true win chance. Here, the prediction market’s **100% YES** implied probability is materially more extreme than the bookmaker consensus, which suggests either thin liquidity, an early/illiquid contract, or a stale market relative to the betting boards.[1][2][3]

For traders, the key catalysts are official fight-week confirmation, any late card reshuffles, and weigh-in or injury news that might affect whether the bout proceeds as scheduled. The market resolves only on the UFC’s official result, and if the fight is cancelled, postponed beyond the deadline, or ends without a scored winner, it settles **50-50** rather than to either fighter.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.