Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 94% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 94% |
| O/U 31.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 91% |
| O/U 33.5 | 90% |
| O/U 34.5 | 90% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 90% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 87% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| O/U 36.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 86% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 86% |
| O/U 37.5 | 84% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 84% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 83% |
| O/U 38.5 | 82% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 82% |
| O/U 39.5 | 80% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 75% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 73% |
| Spread -1.5 | 72% |
| O/U 41.5 | 72% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| O/U 43.5 | 69% |
| O/U 44.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| O/U 45.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 63% |
| Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 62% |
| O/U 46.5 | 61% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 59% |
| O/U 47.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 59% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 58% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| O/U 49.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 51.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 44% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 44% |
| O/U 52.5 | 43% |
| Spread -8.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 42% |
| Spread -9.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 53.5 | 40% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| O/U 54.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 37% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 37% |
| Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| O/U 55.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| O/U 56.5 | 33% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| O/U 57.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 29% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Patriots vs. Bills | 27% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| O/U 58.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 24% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 24% |
| O/U 59.5 | 23% |
| Spread -16.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| O/U 60.5 | 21% |
| O/U 61.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Spread -19.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| O/U 62.5 | 18% |
| O/U 63.5 | 17% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| O/U 64.5 | 15% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 15% |
| O/U 65.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 13% |
| O/U 67.5 | 12% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 10% |
| O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Safety? | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Patriots vs. Bills. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.0M.
Methodology
This page reviews Patriots vs. Bills across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
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