St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cardinals and Reds meet in Cincinnati with the market close to a coin flip: the contract is trading around 47% YES for a St. Louis win, implying only a slight Reds edge if the YES line is read as Cardinals. That sits broadly in line with a low-margin divisional game, but it is still a touch less bullish than a pure 50-50 estimate. Recent head-to-head results are mixed: the teams split meaningful stretches over the past year, with Cincinnati taking a 3-1 win in April 2025 and St Louis responding with a shutout in a later meeting, so there is no clean historical signal that justifies a strong favourite.

For traders, the key catalysts are late line-ups, starting pitchers and any bullpen availability created by recent usage. The best recent source is the live game coverage and official MLB game story pages, which indicate the contest is set for 6:40pm ET and are the most reliable place for confirmed starters and injury-related changes once posted. The Cardinals’ own odds and the main sportsbook board should be watched alongside the prediction market: if the book moves more sharply than the 47% market price, it usually reflects either a confirmed pitching edge or a line-up update rather than broad sentiment. Recent reports also show these clubs have played low-scoring, margin-tight games at times, so a small pre-game edge can disappear quickly if one side rests regulars or a starter is scratched.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.