Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Pirates and Cardinals meet in the final game of their series in St Louis this afternoon, with the market pricing Pittsburgh at 28% to win. That implies a clear underdog position and sits well below a coin-flip view, though the card is not an extreme long shot. Recent results cut both ways: St Louis swept Pittsburgh in late April, including a 10-5 win in Pittsburgh on 30 April, but the Pirates responded with a 7-0 shut-out at Busch Stadium on 20 May, a result that also showed their bullpen can hold a lead when the run support arrives.

For traders, the main watchpoints are starting pitcher confirmation, line-up strength and any late scratch news before first pitch. The game is scheduled for 1:15 pm ET, so there is limited time for movement once clubs post final orders. ESPN’s recent game log and MLB’s scoreboard both show the Pirates have been uneven overall, while the Cardinals have had the better of the recent head-to-head trend; that combination usually leaves sports book pricing more conservative on Pittsburgh than a prediction market number can be, especially if the market is reacting to the Pirates’ one-game shut-out rather than the broader series context. With the settlement window extending to 28 May, any postponement would keep the contract open until the game is completed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.