Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
FC Machida Zelvia host Urawa Red Diamonds in J1 League play at Machida GION Stadium, with the market offering on the “More Markets” contract still showing 0% YES despite the match being scheduled for later today. That sits against a fairly mixed external picture: ESPN’s pre-match board had Machida as a slight home favourite at around +125, with Urawa near +255 and the draw around +210, while totals were shaded towards a low-scoring game, with under 2.5 goals priced as the stronger side. The underlying table positions also point to a competitive fixture rather than a mismatch, with Machida 3rd and Urawa 6th in the standings.
Recent comparable results suggest why the broader market may be cautious about pricing this contract higher. The sides met earlier this season, with Machida winning 2-1 away, and their historical head-to-head also includes Urawa’s much larger 7-1 Emperor’s Cup victory in 2015, showing that the pairing has produced both tight and lopsided outcomes. SportsGambler’s preview leaned towards under 2.5 goals and highlighted Machida’s recent edge in the last clash, which is in line with the tighter totals market across sportsbooks. Urawa’s official site listed the fixture as a Friday 19:30 kick-off at MUFG Stadium, with DAZN carrying the game, so late team news and line-up rotation are the main catalysts to watch before settlement.
Methodology
We track FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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