Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Kashiwa Reysol | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| JEF United Ichihara Chiba | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Kashiwa Reysol will host JEF United Ichihara Chiba on Saturday, 23 May 2026 in a J1 League fixture. The match forms part of the J-League's centenary season programming, with both clubs competing in Japan's top division. Kashiwa Reysol, based in Chiba Prefecture, have established themselves as consistent mid-table performers in recent seasons, whilst JEF United—also Chiba-based—represent a neighbouring rival within the same prefecture. The fixture carries local significance given the geographical proximity and shared supporter base across the region.
The 100% implied probability registered across prediction markets suggests near-certainty that this match will occur as scheduled. Historical precedent indicates J1 League fixtures rarely face cancellation; the league has maintained robust scheduling protocols even during periods of fixture congestion. Comparable regional derbies in Japan's top flight have proceeded without disruption in recent years, establishing a baseline expectation that weather, administrative, or unforeseen circumstances would need to be extraordinary to prevent play.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury bulletins from both clubs in the weeks preceding the fixture, though these typically affect match outcomes rather than fixture viability. Fixture list confirmations from the J-League official website remain the primary catalyst for any material probability shifts. Venue availability at Kashiwa Reysol's home ground and any potential rescheduling announcements would constitute the most significant trigger for reassessment, though such developments remain statistically uncommon in the Japanese professional football calendar.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Trade on PolyGram →