Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to itf kursumlijska banja: elza tomase vs dunja maric. This market refers to the tennis match between Elza Tomase and Dunja Maric in the ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja, originally scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elza T…
Methodology
We track ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elza Tomase vs Dunja Maric across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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