GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Petra Marcinko

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Market context

Jil Teichmann and Petra Marcinko were scheduled to meet in the Rabat semi-finals, a clay-court match that was priced very differently across venues. The prediction market is currently showing 0% YES for Teichmann, while recent analyst previews have leaned towards Marcinko; The Stats Zone tipped Marcinko to win, and Tennis Tonic also backed the Croatian, even suggesting a three-set result. That sits alongside the head-to-head edge for Marcinko, who has beaten Teichmann once in professional play, so the market is effectively discounting a Teichmann upset despite her greater experience on the WTA circuit.

The strongest comparison is to matches where a younger, lower-ranked player has already handled the same opponent and then arrives with the cleaner form line on clay. Marcinko, aged 20 and ranked well below Teichmann, had still been treated as the more likely winner by several preview models, which helps explain why the contract has not attracted meaningful YES support. The key catalyst is simple: whether the semi-final is actually played and completed within the seven-day settlement window. WTA’s match report later confirmed Marcinko won 7-6(2), 6-3 to reach her first WTA final, so if the market was still open before settlement, that result would be decisive.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Petra Marcinko across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.