Roland Garros WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil Teichmann

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Market context

Liudmila Samsonova and Jil Teichmann are scheduled to meet in the first or second round of the 2026 Roland Garros women's draw on 24 May. The 0% implied probability reflects either minimal trading activity or a strong consensus expectation favouring one player, though the settlement window extends to 31 May, allowing for potential scheduling shifts typical of clay-court tournaments where weather delays are routine.

Samsonova has historically performed unevenly on clay relative to hard courts, with her career record at Roland Garros showing modest early-round results despite ranking volatility. Teichmann, a Swiss player with a more consistent clay baseline, has occasionally advanced past opening matches at major tournaments but lacks a sustained record of deep runs. Direct head-to-head records between mid-ranked players in this tier often show minimal prior meetings, making comparative form the primary lens; recent tournament results and seeding assignments will be decisive indicators of how sportsbooks price the matchup relative to prediction-market consensus.

Traders should monitor official Roland Garros seeding announcements and entry lists, expected in late April 2026, which will clarify both players' tournament positioning and likely opponent strength. Injury reports carry particular weight given the clay-court calendar's physical demands in the weeks preceding Paris. Any significant ranking shifts or withdrawal patterns among higher-seeded players could alter draw composition and thus the probability of this specific pairing occurring at all, a contingency the 50-50 tie-break rule addresses.

Methodology

We track Roland Garros WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil Teichmann on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.