Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
57% | 43% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
57% | 43% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 57% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 52% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% |
| Map 2 Winner | 43% |
| Map 1 Winner | 42% |
| Match Winner | 36% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 34% |
| Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) | 34% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 32% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 32% |
| Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) | 19% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: team liquid vs eternal fire (bo3) - vct emea group omega stands at 57% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Team Liquid and Eternal Fire in the VCT EMEA Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 15 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
We track Valorant: Team Liquid vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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