UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)

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Market context

On Saturday, 27 June 2026, Daniil Donchenko faces Theodor Berggren in a welterweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres. Berggren, a late replacement for Andreas Gustafsson, steps in against Donchenko, a three-time UFC winner with a 14-2 record. The crowd-implied probability of Berggren winning sits at 0%, a stark divergence from sportsbook lines where Donchenko is favoured at -500 odds, while Berggren holds +380[2]. Analysts across platforms, including DraftKings and The Stats Zone, uniformly predict Donchenko to win by TKO, reinforcing the prediction market’s extreme bearish stance on Berggren[1][2].

Historically, such 0% implied probabilities in UFC prelims have rarely held when fighters are late replacements with minimal preparation, yet Donchenko’s dominance in his last three bouts (including wins over Rodrigo Sezinando and Alex Morono) justifies the market’s confidence[2]. Comparable cases from UFC Baku and earlier Fight Nights show that late replacements with under two weeks’ notice often struggle against established UFC veterans, particularly when the veteran has a superior average fight time and win streak[2][6]. Traders should monitor official UFC announcements for any fight delays, medical suspensions, or changes in fight status, as these could trigger the 50-50 resolution clause if the bout is postponed beyond 11 July 2026[4]. Recent coverage from Kalshi confirms the market’s rules and underscores the importance of UFC’s official resolution source for settlement[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.