UFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo (Lightweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Market context

Diego Ferreira versus Billy Quarantillo is a lightweight main-card fight at UFC Fight Night, and the comparison point for this market is that the wider market has generally made Ferreira the favourite rather than Quarantillo. Current sportsbook averages shown by UFCalendar put Ferreira around **-170 to -175**, implying roughly **63-64%** chance, while Quarantillo sits near **+147 to +151**, or about **40%** implied probability; one UFC stats-style profile also shows CBS Sports listing Ferreira at **62%** and Quarantillo at **38%**.[4][9][15] Against that backdrop, a prediction-market price at **100% YES** is a major outlier, because it prices in an essentially certain Ferreira win even though the betting market and analyst consensus still reflect a competitive bout rather than a lock.[4][13][16]

The statistical frame is mixed but leans towards Ferreira on finishing routes and fight experience. MMA Index lists Ferreira with more career submissions and a stronger submission profile, while Quarantillo brings higher takedown volume and more pressure striking; the same matchup pages show Quarantillo landing more significant strikes per minute, but Ferreira with better defence numbers and a reach edge.[2][13][16] Comparable bouts involving older, experienced lightweights with divergent styles often trade around the low-to-mid 60s in implied win probability, so the current crowd-implied certainty looks much more extreme than the cross-platform baseline.[4][6]

For traders, the main catalysts are official UFC bout status, the weigh-ins, and any late change to the fight card, because this contract settles only on the UFC’s official result and can flip to 50-50 if the bout is cancelled, postponed beyond the settlement window, or ruled a no contest.[1][4] The relevant dependency is simple: if the fight goes ahead as scheduled and Ferreira is announced the winner, the market resolves to Ferreira; if Quarantillo wins, it resolves the other way.[1] Any late injury, weight-miss fallout, or commission ruling matters more here than pre-fight noise, because the market’s pricing already sits far ahead of both sportsbook and analyst benchmarks.[4][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo (Lightweight, Main Card) across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.