UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bruno Silva and Édgar Cháirez are scheduled to compete in a flyweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on 6 June 2026. The market currently reflects zero implied probability for Silva's victory, a position that warrants scrutiny given the absence of published sportsbook lines or recent analyst commentary on this specific matchup. Both fighters operate at 125 pounds in a division where technical proficiency and cardio efficiency often determine outcomes across three-round preliminary contests.

Historical precedent suggests preliminary-round flyweight bouts frequently produce tighter margins than headline fights, with decision outcomes occurring in roughly 60% of cases at this weight class over the past two years. Silva's record and recent form remain the primary determinants of fair value, yet the 0% implied probability suggests either severe information asymmetry or minimal market liquidity rather than genuine consensus that Cháirez represents a prohibitive favourite. Comparable preliminary matchups on prediction markets typically settle with probabilities reflecting at least modest uncertainty, particularly when fighter records and recent performance data remain publicly available.

The settlement window closes on 7 June 2026 at 03:59:59 UTC, allowing approximately 24 hours post-fight for official UFC confirmation. Traders should monitor UFC Fight Night announcements for any last-minute fighter withdrawals, weight-cut complications, or scheduling changes that could trigger a 50-50 resolution. Confirmation of both fighters' weigh-in success and final bout confirmation typically occurs 24 hours before the event. The preliminary-bout status means this contest will likely conclude early in the card, with results available well before the settlement deadline.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.