UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Allan Nascimento is facing Mitch Raposo on the prelims in a flyweight bout, and the market’s 0% YES implies the contract is being priced as a near-certain Raposo outcome or, more likely, that the event has not yet been correctly reflected in the market rather than a true zero chance for Nascimento. On comparable pre-fight reads, Nascimento has generally been treated as the stronger side in conventional odds: BetMGM listed him around -180, with Raposo at +145, while recent preview pieces have split on whether Nascimento’s submission game or Raposo’s boxing and pace are the cleaner path to victory.[2][1][4]

That creates a clear divergence between sportsbook pricing and a crowd-implied 0% read, which is unusually extreme for a booked UFC prelim and should be treated cautiously. Analyst consensus is mixed rather than unanimous: The Stats Zone backed Nascimento by submission, BetMGM’s preview leaned towards a Raposo decision, and other commentary has framed Raposo as live if he can keep the fight low-volume and upright.[1][2][5] In market terms, that means the true range is probably a standard flyweight swing rather than a one-sided spot, with grappling upside for Nascimento and pace-plus-boxing upside for Raposo.

The main catalysts are straightforward: weigh-in confirmation, late medical or commission issues, and any card reshuffling that could affect whether the bout goes ahead on schedule. The UFC and official event listings have the fight on the prelims, with third-party fight trackers also pencilling in a June 20 start, so the key trading risk is not method-of-victory nuance but whether the bout remains intact and is officially scored by the UFC.[6][9] Because the contract settles only on the UFC’s official result, any no contest, cancellation, or postponement beyond the window would push it to the market’s fallback outcome rather than either fighter.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

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