Falkirk FC vs. St Mirren FC - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Falkirk’s meeting with St Mirren is a genuine Scottish Premiership fixture, but this contract is trading at **0% YES** despite the teams having met recently in league play and split the last five head-to-heads 2-2-1 in Falkirk’s favour. That makes the market look materially out of line with the football context alone: ESPN’s recent head-to-head listing shows Falkirk beat St Mirren 2-0 in January 2026, while St Mirren won 2-1 in September 2025[8][17]. Longer-run samples are also mixed rather than one-sided, with head-to-head databases showing anything from Falkirk leading 8-2-4 across the last 14 meetings to broader all-time records that tilt slightly either way depending on the dataset used[3][5][10].

For comparison, sportsbook-style form pages point to a live game rather than a settled outcome: Sky Sports lists Falkirk’s recent cup and league results and St Mirren’s own run of Premiership and cup matches, which is the sort of information traders watch when pricing “more markets” contracts around total goals, cards or corners rather than the match result itself[4][6]. The main catalysts before the 14:00Z settlement window are the confirmed line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and whether the fixture is treated as a full-strength league opener or a match with experimental selections. Because the contract is already at zero, any meaningful divergence from sportsbook pricing or analyst expectation would most likely come from a platform data issue, a delayed market refresh, or a structural mismatch in what “more markets” covers, rather than from the historical record of the teams[4][8][11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Falkirk FC vs. St Mirren FC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.