Sport Boys Association vs. Club Alianza Lima

Platform comparison

Market context

Sport Boys’ meeting with Alianza Lima has a clear historical lean towards the visitors, and that is the main reason a 0% yes price stands out. Across recent head-to-head databases, Alianza Lima have won the majority of meetings, with one source listing 23 wins in 40 matches since 2005 and another showing 11 wins in 17, while Sport Boys have been limited to a small minority of victories.[1][3][16] Recent scorelines also lean Alianza’s way: they beat Sport Boys 1-0 in February 2026 and have taken several of the most recent league fixtures by narrow margins or with clean sheets.[6][20] On that evidence, a 0% crowd-implied probability looks far below the historical baseline, unless the contract is using a very specific settlement rule that sharply narrows the eligible outcome.

The main comparison point for traders is that match-winning markets on football fixtures with this kind of one-sided head-to-head record usually do not sit anywhere near zero for the stronger side, even when the underdog has occasional home resistance. In comparable recent meetings, Alianza have often controlled the result without always running up a large scoreline, which is relevant if sportsbook lines are shorter than the market suggests and analyst previews continue to treat them as the higher-probability side.[6][11][17] The key catalyst is the official pre-match team news: confirmed line-ups, late injuries, suspensions, and any rotation around fixture congestion can move both sportsbook prices and prediction-market sentiment quickly, particularly if Alianza arrive with a weakened attack or if Sport Boys field a stronger home XI than expected. Regional match previews and live score services are the most likely sources to update that information closest to kick-off.[4][17][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Sport Boys Association vs. Club Alianza Lima across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.