CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. Club Alianza Lima

Platform comparison

Market context

CD Comerciantes Unidos are playing Club Alianza Lima in Peru’s Liga 1, with the market settling on the result of that match. The crowd-implied **0% YES** implies the contract is effectively pricing in an outcome that is not being reflected by the available football data, rather than a normal pre-match split.

In comparable Liga 1 fixtures, Alianza Lima usually carries the stronger historical profile, and head-to-head tools such as FootyStats track this pairing as a live contest rather than an obvious mismatch, with recent meeting data showing a narrow scoreline state in progress[1]. That kind of profile is important for reading an extreme market price: when prediction markets sit near zero, even a small shift in team news, line-up quality, or in-play momentum can make the contract look badly misaligned with sportsbook pricing and analyst judgement.

For traders, the main catalysts are late team announcements, confirmed starting XIs, and any scheduling or travel disruption before kick-off, because those factors can move both the match odds and the interpretation of whether the 0% implied probability is justified. Any divergence between book lines and the prediction market is most likely to come from lineup-related information rather than long-run form alone, especially if one side rests regulars or rotates heavily in a congested calendar.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. Club Alianza Lima across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.