Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| O/U 19.5 | 96% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 90% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 87% |
| O/U 25.5 | 84% |
| O/U 27.5 | 70% |
| O/U 29.5 | 67% |
| Giants vs. Jets | 62% |
| O/U 31.5 | 62% |
| Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 33.5 | 53% |
| Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Jets O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 21+ | 50% |
| Giants Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jets Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Giants vs. Jets: Total Defensive/Special Teams TDs O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Giants vs. Jets: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Giants 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Giants 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Giants 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| O/U 37.5 | 37% |
| O/U 36.5 | 36% |
| O/U 39.5 | 25% |
| O/U 43.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| O/U 55.5 | 9% |
| O/U 49.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, giants vs. jets stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for August 28 at 7:30PM ET: If Giants wins, the market will resolve to "Giants". If Jets wins, the market will resolve to "Jets". If the game is…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $173K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
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