San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners

Platform comparison

Market context

The San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners completed a three-game series on 19 July at Oracle Park, with the Mariners winning 6–3 to take the series two games to one. This outcome settled the specific contest referenced in the prediction market, which now carries a 0% implied probability for a Giants win because the game has already concluded with a Mariners victory.

Historically, prediction markets that retain open status after a game’s real-world resolution typically collapse to 0% or 100% within hours once official results are confirmed, as seen in similar MLB contracts where delayed settlement windows did not prevent rapid price convergence. The current 0% YES probability aligns with this pattern, reflecting the settled 6–3 result rather than any uncertainty about the outcome.

Traders should monitor the official final statistics page on ESPN for any post-game adjustments that could trigger a market re-open, though no such changes are expected given the Mariners’ clear win. Recent coverage confirms Luke Raley and Cole Young both hit home runs in the 6–3 victory, cementing the result as final with no indication of postponement or cancellation that would extend the settlement window [1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.