New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Mets visit the Miami Marlins on 22 May, with the market sitting close to a coin flip at 49% YES for a Mets win. ESPN’s opener has New York around -126, which implies roughly 56% before vig, so the contract is materially shorter than the sportsbook view. That gap suggests the prediction market is pricing either more uncertainty around the matchup or a slightly stronger case for Miami than the headline moneyline implies. The teams arrive with identical 22-28 records, but Miami has been a touch better at home, while New York has been below .500 away.

Recent results and the season profile give only a modest edge to either side. ESPN’s team stats show the Mets with a 3.85 ERA and 45 home runs, versus Miami’s 4.39 ERA, 42 homers, and a better on-base rate (.321 to .296). That points to a narrow analytical lean towards New York, but not a dominant one. Head-to-head form has also been mixed: StatMuse’s recent meetings include a 4-0 Marlins win in September 2025, which is consistent with a matchup that can swing on pitching and run prevention rather than overall record.

The main catalysts are the confirmed starting pitchers, late lineup news, and any bullpen availability after the opening game of the series. MLB.com had already highlighted Eury Pérez in connection with the Mets on 22 May, so pitching confirmation is likely to matter more than team batting averages. With the game at loanDepot park, weather should be a limited variable, and the settlement window runs to 29 May in case of postponement or a reschedule. If any last-minute rotation change pushes a weaker arm into the game, either the sportsbook line or the market price could move quickly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.