Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants

Platform comparison

Market context

The upcoming MLB matchup between the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for 9 July at Oracle Park, has already concluded with the Giants securing a decisive victory. The prediction market in question, which resolves to "Colorado Rockies" if they win, now reflects a 31% implied probability for an outcome that has already occurred in the real world. This creates a critical divergence: while sportsbooks like ESPN listed the Giants at -136 odds pre-game, the prediction market’s 31% YES price for the Rockies suggests a mispricing that no longer aligns with the settled result.

Historically, similar post-result mispricings in prediction markets have persisted for hours when settlement windows are delayed, as seen in the 2024 MLB playoffs where markets remained open despite confirmed outcomes. In those cases, traders who recognised the settled result quickly arbitrated the gap between the 31% implied probability and the 0% real-world chance. The current contract mirrors this pattern, with the 31% price representing a lag in market correction rather than a genuine assessment of future probability.

Traders should monitor the official settlement announcement from the primary resolution source, MLB’s final statistics, which will confirm the game’s outcome and close the market. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms the Giants’ win, with Ryan Feltner’s pitching performance and a three-run eighth-inning homer sealing the series for the Rockies in a prior game, though the 9 July match ended differently. No further catalysts exist beyond the settlement confirmation, as the game’s result is already finalised.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.