Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago Cubs face the New York Mets at Citi Field on 23 June for a 7:10 PM ET MLB clash, with the Cubs holding a 40–37 record against the Mets’ 34–43 standing. While major sportsbooks like Covers and ESPN list the Cubs as slight favourites at moneyline -108, the prediction market for a Cubs win shows a crowd-implied probability of 0%, a stark divergence from both book lines and analyst consensus that typically favours the team with the superior record and home-away split[1][2].

Historically, such a 0% implied probability in a live MLB game where one side is clearly favoured by record and odds is unprecedented; comparable cases from past seasons show that even when a team is heavily outplayed, prediction markets rarely drop below 5–10% unless the game is effectively abandoned or the team is disqualified[5]. This suggests either a data error in the market’s crowd aggregation or an extreme, unverified belief that the Cubs cannot win, despite the run line and over/under markets indicating a competitive contest[1].

Traders should monitor immediate starting pitcher announcements and any late-injury updates, as these are the primary catalysts that could shift odds from the current -108 baseline. Recent analysis from Yahoo Sports notes that the Cubs’ away form (17–20) and the Mets’ home strength (18–18) are key dependencies, and any change in pitching rotations could invalidate the current 0% probability[4]. Settlement remains open until the game is completed, with a 50–50 resolution only if the match is cancelled or ends in a tie[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.