Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Pachuca O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Pachuca 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Querétaro FC O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 69% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 63% |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| Querétaro FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Querétaro FC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| CF Pachuca 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CF Pachuca 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Querétaro FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CF Pachuca O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Querétaro FC O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| CF Pachuca (-1.5) | 8% |
| CF Pachuca O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Querétaro FC (-1.5) | 2% |
| O/U 5.5 | 2% |
| CF Pachuca (-2.5) | 1% |
| Querétaro FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| CF Pachuca 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Querétaro FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Querétaro FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
Market context
CF Pachuca vs Querétaro FC is a Liga MX match whose related “more markets” contract is pricing additional betting outcomes rather than the match result itself. With the crowd-implied probability at **8% YES**, the market is signalling that the specific event is being treated as a low-frequency outcome, which is broadly consistent with the kind of longshot pricing that often appears in secondary proposition markets rather than in standard win-draw-win lines.[2][4]
Recent head-to-head results give useful context for reading that figure. The teams split their latest meetings unevenly: Querétaro beat Pachuca 2-0 in September 2025, but the next comparable fixture in February 2026 finished 0-0, while FootyStats still listed Pachuca as a 2.10 favourite in one head-to-head snapshot despite the away setting.[4][1][2] That combination suggests the cross-platform picture is not strongly one-sided; by contrast, an 8% contract probability is much lower than what would usually be implied by a routine match market, so the divergence here is likely about the narrower “more markets” event definition rather than the underlying team strength.[2][4]
For traders, the main catalysts are the final market menu released close to kick-off, confirmed line-ups, and whether the book’s proposition set changes as team news lands. Because this is a scheduled late-evening Liga MX fixture, any late injury update, rotation note, or odds move in the hours before the 9:00 PM ET start can matter more than the historical head-to-heads, particularly if sportsbooks and prediction markets diverge on whether a niche stat or combo market is likely to clear.[1][2]
Methodology
We track CF Pachuca vs. Querétaro FC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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