Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 74% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 71% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 68% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 68% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 52% |
| Game 2 Winner | 51% |
| Game 3 Winner | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Game 1 Winner | 50% |
| Game 4 Winner | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Match Winner | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 48% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 36% |
| Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) | 31% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 30% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 29% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 29% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 29% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 29% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 22% |
| Game Handicap: NS (-2.5) vs DN SOOPers (+2.5) | 12% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 74% probability to lol: nongshim red force vs dn soopers (bo5) - kespa cup playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Nongshim Red Force and DN SOOPers in the KeSPA Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
Trade LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA … on Best Prediction Markets UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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