Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 73% |
| Match Winner | 66% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Game 1 Winner | 60% |
| Game 2 Winner | 59% |
| Game 3 Winner | 59% |
| Game 4 Winner | 58% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 55% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 54% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5) | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 43% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 42% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 42% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 41% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 41% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 40% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 34% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5) | 23% |
| Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) | 22% |
| Game Handicap: TSW (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) | 7% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: lyon vs team secret whales (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs stands at 73% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between LYON and Team Secret Whales in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 8 at 4:00…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season I… on Best Prediction Markets UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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