Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 78% |
| Game 1 Winner | 68% |
| Game 2 Winner | 67% |
| Game 3 Winner | 67% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 67% |
| Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) | 63% |
| Game 4 Winner | 60% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 53% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 49% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 37% |
| Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) | 32% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 30% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
Market context
Market consensus: 78% chance of lol: g2 esports vs lyon (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between G2 Esports and LYON in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 10 at 4:00AM ET. This…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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Trade LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitatio… on Best Prediction Markets UK
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