LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

DN SOOPers face KT Rolster in a single-game KeSPA Cup Group Stage clash that was scheduled for 5:45am ET on 20 July, with the contest now effectively concluded given the settlement window expiry. The prediction market currently implies a 0% chance of a DN SOOPers victory, aligning with overwhelming external sentiment that KT Rolster are the dominant side in this fixture.

Historical crowd behaviour on esports platforms shows similar divergence when one team holds a clear pedigree advantage; in this case, Strafe users allocated 95.2% of votes to KT Rolster winning, leaving just 4.8% for DN SOOPers [1][2]. Such a stark split between community voting and a zero-implied probability on the prediction market suggests either a liquidity gap, a late roster change not yet reflected in odds, or a technical cancellation that has already been factored into the 50-50 settlement clause for unplayed matches.

Traders should monitor official KeSPA Cup announcements for any post-match rulings on forfeiture, cancellation, or delay beyond the seven-day threshold, as these conditions trigger the 50-50 resolution rather than a team win. With the match date already passed and no confirmed replay scheduled, the primary catalyst is the platform’s final determination on whether the game was played or voided, which will override the current 0% line if the 50-50 clause applies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.