Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| Gangwon FC O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| Both Teams to Score | 68% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Gangwon FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gangwon FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gangwon FC O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Gangwon FC O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 (-1.5) | 16% |
| O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Gangwon FC (-1.5) | 7% |
| O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Gangwon FC (-2.5) | 6% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 (-2.5) | 6% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Gangwon FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Gangwon FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Gangwon FC and Bucheon FC 1995 meet in K League 1, with the prediction market’s **6% YES** price implying that the “more markets” contract is being treated as a longshot rather than a mainstream match outcome. That is broadly consistent with a low-probability reading, but it sits against a more balanced historical rivalry: FootyStats and FotMob show Bucheon leading the all-time head-to-head 6-5 with two draws across 13 meetings, while a March 2026 league meeting finished 0-0.[1][4] Recent team-level data also point to a tighter game state than the market price suggests, with 365Scores listing Gangwon on 14 points and Bucheon on 14 points after 14 league matches, and the sides already having drawn once this season.[11]
For comparison, sportsbook and model-style previews appear less extreme than a 6% market price would imply. FootyStats’ betting snapshot shows a **bet365** Bucheon price of 5.50, which suggests an away win is possible but not favoured, while Football Fetch’s preview shows Gangwon as the stronger side on season output, with 8-7-4 versus Bucheon’s 4-8-8 and goals rates of 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded for Gangwon.[2][9] The main catalysts to watch are team news, lineup rotation and any late absences that shift the game from a cautious, low-scoring profile towards a more open script; the most recent published match records available here still point to a meeting that can stay tight, with the March draw featuring only a modest shot volume and no goals.[3][7]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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