Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja Match O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 51% |
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja | 50% |
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja Set 1 Winner | 50% |
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 51% chance of itf dallas: dana guzman vs julieta pareja. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Dana Guzman and Julieta Pareja in the ITF Women Dallas, originally scheduled for July 15, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
We track ITF Dallas: Dana Guzman vs Julieta Pareja across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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