Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 89% |
| England O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| O/U 1.5 | 66% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| Mexico O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| Mexico 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score | 48% |
| Team to Advance | 47% |
| England 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 38% |
| Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| England O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 31% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 30% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Mexico O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 22% |
| O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| England (-1.5) | 17% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 17% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Mexico (-1.5) | 12% |
| England O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| England 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 11% |
| Mexico O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| England (-2.5) | 6% |
| Mexico (-2.5) | 3% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| England (-3.5) | 2% |
| Mexico (-4.5) | 2% |
| Mexico (-3.5) | 1% |
| England (-4.5) | 1% |
| O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Mexico (-5.5) | 0% |
| England (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
The Mexico vs. England - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 89% YES. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 5 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews Mexico vs. England - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Mexico vs. England - More Markets on Best Prediction Markets UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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